Current price
14.7p/kWh
↓ 0.9% next
Daily avg
19.6p/kWh
Cheapest
13.3p
at 15:00
Peak
34.5p
at 18:30
Price (p/kWh)
Actual
V12
ML
Insights
Cheapest window today10:00 – 16:00 · as low as 13.3p/kWh
›
Avoid 4pm–7pmPeak pricing active · up to 34.5p/kWh
›
Price dropping next slotGoing from 14.7p to 14.6p at 12:00
›
How predictions work
Formula prediction
Uses day-ahead wholesale prices from the Nord Pool N2EX market to predict Agile rates.
A rolling linear regression is fitted over the most recent 14 days of data
to derive the coefficients
D (wholesale weight), P (peak surcharge),
and a base offset. The formula is price = D × wholesale + P × peak + base,
with a 5% VAT applied. Currently fitted at D=2.17, P=12.2,
base=-3.8, MAE=1.1p.
Available once Nord Pool publishes day-ahead prices (usually by 11am for the next day).
ML prediction
An XGBoost ensemble model (V4) trained on historical Agile rates, wholesale prices,
and weather data. It uses separate sub-models for off-peak, peak, and shoulder periods,
each with time-of-day features, lagged prices, and weather forecasts (temperature, wind speed
from Open-Meteo). Predictions are chained — each slot's forecast becomes an input for the next.
Used to fill gaps beyond Nord Pool data availability, typically covering 24–48 hours ahead.